El Niño 2026–27 in Caribbean
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anguilla | likely wetter (22/25/53%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Antigua and Barbuda | no clear signal (37/28/35%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Aruba | likely drier (98/2/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Bahamas | likely wetter (0/0/100%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Barbados | likely drier (73/19/8%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| British Virgin Islands | likely wetter (16/23/61%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Cayman Islands | likely wetter (0/4/96%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Cuba | likely wetter (0/0/100%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Curaçao | likely drier (100/0/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Dominica | likely drier (75/13/12%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Dominican Republic | likely wetter (4/21/75%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Grenada | likely drier (75/21/4%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Haiti | likely wetter (0/10/90%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Jamaica | likely wetter (4/12/84%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Puerto Rico | likely wetter (24/21/55%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | no clear signal (33/30/37%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Saint Lucia | likely drier (71/21/8%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | likely drier (69/23/8%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Saint-Martin | likely wetter (22/25/53%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Sint Maarten | likely wetter (22/25/53%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Trinidad and Tobago | likely drier (92/8/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | likely wetter (6/8/86%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| United States Virgin Islands | likely wetter (25/20/55%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).