El Niño status now
El Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026. Read NOAA's discussion. Next update: 10 December 2026.
How strong is it compared with past El Niños?
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is the 3-month average sea-surface temperature difference from normal in the central Pacific. NOAA calls it an El Niño when the ONI stays at +0.5 °C or more for five overlapping seasons. Strength: weak (0.5–0.9), moderate (1.0–1.4), strong (1.5–1.9), very strong (2.0 and above).
Latest ONI: 2.46 °C for ASO 2026 (very strong).
| El Niño | Peak ONI | Peak season | Length (seasons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMJ 2026 – ASO 2026 (ongoing) | 2.46 °C | ASO 2026 | 5 |
| MJJ 2023 – MAM 2024 | 1.99 °C | NDJ 2023 | 11 |
| SON 2019 – FMA 2020 | 0.75 °C | NDJ 2019 | 6 |
| ASO 2018 – MJJ 2019 | 1.05 °C | NDJ 2018 | 10 |
| SON 2014 – AMJ 2016 | 2.59 °C | NDJ 2015 | 20 |
| JJA 2009 – FMA 2010 | 1.5 °C | NDJ 2009 | 9 |
| ASO 2006 – DJF 2007 | 0.88 °C | OND 2006 | 5 |
| JAS 2004 – JFM 2005 | 0.71 °C | NDJ 2004 | 7 |
| JJA 2002 – JFM 2003 | 1.19 °C | OND 2002 | 8 |
| AMJ 1997 – MAM 1998 | 2.37 °C | NDJ 1997 | 12 |
| SON 1994 – JFM 1995 | 0.97 °C | NDJ 1994 | 5 |
| MJJ 1991 – MJJ 1992 | 1.54 °C | DJF 1992 | 13 |
| ASO 1986 – DJF 1988 | 1.49 °C | ASO 1987 | 17 |
| AMJ 1982 – MJJ 1983 | 2.14 °C | DJF 1983 | 14 |
For the ongoing event, “peak” is the highest value so far. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index (ERSSTv5).
Update log
- 12 November 2026: NOAA status “El Niño Advisory”.