El Niño 2026–27 in Central America
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belize | likely drier (90/8/2%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Costa Rica | likely drier (63/35/2%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| El Salvador | leaning drier (47/22/31%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Guatemala | likely drier (90/8/2%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Honduras | likely drier (92/6/2%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Mexico | leaning wetter (24/29/47%) | mixed (15 seasons) | leaning warmer |
| Nicaragua | likely drier (100/0/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Panama | likely drier (73/25/2%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).