El Niño 2026–27 in Eastern Africa
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burundi | likely wetter (16/25/59%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Comoros | no clear signal (29/42/29%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Djibouti | likely wetter (2/43/55%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Eritrea | leaning wetter (10/47/43%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Ethiopia | likely wetter (2/27/71%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Kenya | likely wetter (2/27/71%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Madagascar | likely drier (53/25/22%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Malawi | likely drier (57/18/25%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Mauritius | no clear signal (25/44/31%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Mozambique | likely drier (65/17/18%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Rwanda | likely wetter (12/21/67%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Seychelles | likely wetter (10/37/53%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Somalia | leaning wetter (10/43/47%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Somaliland | likely wetter (16/31/53%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| South Sudan | leaning wetter (24/33/43%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Tanzania | leaning wetter (16/35/49%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Uganda | likely wetter (6/25/69%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Zambia | likely drier (63/27/10%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Zimbabwe | likely drier (51/35/14%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).