El Niño 2026–27 in Melanesia
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji | likely drier (98/2/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| New Caledonia | likely drier (63/25/12%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Papua New Guinea | likely wetter (8/2/90%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Solomon Islands | leaning wetter (14/39/47%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Vanuatu | likely drier (90/10/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).