El Niño 2026–27 in Northern Africa
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | likely drier (55/25/20%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Egypt | leaning drier (43/30/27%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Libya | likely drier (67/17/16%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Morocco | leaning wetter (27/28/45%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Sudan | no clear signal (27/40/33%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Tunisia | likely drier (69/17/14%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Western Sahara | leaning wetter (24/33/43%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).