El Niño 2026–27 in Northern Europe
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | likely wetter (22/25/53%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Estonia | leaning wetter (16/37/47%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Faeroe Islands | leaning drier (45/26/29%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Finland | leaning wetter (20/35/45%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Guernsey | likely wetter (8/27/65%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Iceland | likely drier (57/31/12%) | mixed (15 seasons) | leaning warmer |
| Ireland | no clear signal (22/43/35%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Isle of Man | leaning wetter (10/45/45%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Jersey | likely wetter (8/27/65%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Latvia | likely wetter (24/21/55%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Lithuania | likely wetter (22/21/57%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Norway | no clear signal (35/38/27%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Sweden | likely wetter (29/12/59%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| United Kingdom | no clear signal (18/43/39%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Åland Islands | likely wetter (14/31/55%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).