El Niño 2026–27 in Polynesia
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Samoa | likely drier (94/6/0%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Cook Islands | likely drier (98/2/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely cooler |
| French Polynesia | leaning wetter (20/39/41%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Samoa | likely drier (96/4/0%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Tonga | likely drier (90/8/2%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Tuvalu | likely wetter (0/20/80%) | usually wetter (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Wallis and Futuna Islands | likely drier (100/0/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).