El Niño 2026–27 in South America
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | likely wetter (0/0/100%) | mixed (15 seasons) | no clear signal |
| Bolivia | likely drier (78/20/2%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Brazil | likely drier (88/10/2%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Chile | likely drier (82/18/0%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Colombia | no clear signal (27/38/35%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Ecuador | likely wetter (0/0/100%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Guyana | likely drier (96/4/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Paraguay | likely wetter (0/8/92%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Peru | likely wetter (4/14/82%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Suriname | likely drier (100/0/0%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Uruguay | likely wetter (0/10/90%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely cooler |
| Venezuela | likely drier (75/23/2%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).