El Niño 2026–27 in Southern Europe
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | leaning wetter (22/31/47%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Andorra | leaning wetter (27/28/45%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | likely wetter (16/33/51%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Croatia | likely wetter (14/27/59%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Greece | likely drier (51/27/22%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Italy | leaning wetter (27/32/41%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Kosovo | leaning wetter (18/33/49%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Malta | likely drier (67/23/10%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Montenegro | likely wetter (14/31/55%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| North Macedonia | no clear signal (24/37/39%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Portugal | likely wetter (14/19/67%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| San Marino | leaning wetter (22/33/45%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Serbia | likely wetter (18/27/55%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Slovenia | likely wetter (8/35/57%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Spain | likely wetter (18/19/63%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).