El Niño 2026–27 in Western Africa
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benin | leaning drier (49/39/12%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Burkina Faso | no clear signal (31/51/18%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Côte d'Ivoire | likely drier (59/33/8%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Ghana | likely drier (75/21/4%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Guinea | leaning drier (47/22/31%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Guinea-Bissau | leaning wetter (31/28/41%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Liberia | likely drier (67/25/8%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Mali | no clear signal (29/32/39%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Mauritania | leaning wetter (37/22/41%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Niger | likely drier (55/21/24%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Nigeria | likely drier (55/29/16%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Republic of Cabo Verde | no clear signal (37/26/37%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Senegal | leaning wetter (27/24/49%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Sierra Leone | likely drier (61/29/10%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| The Gambia | leaning wetter (27/26/47%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Togo | likely drier (63/31/6%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).