El Niño 2026–27 in Philippines
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in Philippines (100% chance). That matches the past: 15 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were drier than usual here.
Temperatures: likely warmer than the 1993–2016 average (100% chance).
El Niño status: El Niño Advisory (NOAA, 12 November 2026). Outlook: Copernicus, issued November 2026.
Outlook for the next six months
December–February
Rainfall: likely drier
Temperature: likely warmer
February–April
Rainfall: likely drier
Temperature: likely warmer
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” means the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range; because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecast (Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51), country average. How this is calculated.
Air quality, next 4 days
Worst forecast day: Manila, 17 November 2026: Moderate (PM2.5 15.1 µg/m³, AQI 62).
| City | 11/15 | 11/16 | 11/17 | 11/18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manila (capital) | 62Moderate | 58Moderate | 62Moderate | 52Moderate |
| Baguio (capital) | 51Moderate | 49Good | 56Moderate | 53Moderate |
| Quezon City | 40Good | 39Good | 43Good | 29Good |
| Davao | 26Good | 24Good | 47Good | 27Good |
| Cagayan de Oro | 26Good | 23Good | 40Good | 22Good |
AQI = US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days.
Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service global forecast, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What happened in past El Niños
Each row compares El Niño seasons with all other years in 1979-2025, after removing the long-term trend.
| Season | Rainfall | Temperature |
|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 15 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 52% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.2 °C on average) |
| Jan–Mar | Drier in 13 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 64% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.1 °C on average) |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 10 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 68% less rain on average) | Warmer in 8 of 10 El Niño seasons (+0.3 °C on average) |
| Mar–May | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 50% less rain on average) | Warmer in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (+0.4 °C on average) |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 24% less rain on average) | Warmer in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (+0.2 °C on average) |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 11% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.2 °C on average) |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 5% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.1 °C on average) |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 5% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.0 °C on average) |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 11 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 13% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.0 °C on average) |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 23% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.0 °C on average) |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 33% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.1 °C on average) |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 38% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.2 °C on average) |
Source: ERA5 monthly reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method.
Known El Niño impacts in Philippines
PAGASA says El Niño raises the chance of below-normal rainfall in the Philippines, which can bring dry spells and drought to some areas (advisory of January 2024). [PAGASA, ENSO Advisory No. 7 (January 2024)]
Past events
- During the 1997 El Niño, Angat Dam fell to 185.58 m against a normal 212 m, and Pantabangan Dam was 39.3 m below its desired level. [Berja, J. G. Jr. (1998), El Niño Damage Assessment in Central Luzon, ACRS 1998 (conference paper)]
- In the 2015–16 El Niño, Sarangani received 40–80% of its normal rainfall for seven months, and Zamboanga City declared a state of calamity on 12 January. [OCHA, Philippines Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 1 (Dec 2015–Jan 2016)]
- By 1 May 2024, the government counted about 2.97 million people (695,149 families) in 3,905 barangays affected by El Niño. [DSWD, DROMIC Report #46 on the Effects of El Niño (as of 1 May 2024), via ReliefWeb]
Most exposed
The OCHA bulletin calls Region XII (South Cotabato, North Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani) Mindanao's breadbasket, and reports it was hit by a prolonged dry spell. [OCHA, Philippines Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 1 (Dec 2015–Jan 2016)]
PAGASA warns that El Niño can harm water supply, agriculture, energy, health and public safety. [PAGASA, ENSO Advisory No. 7 (January 2024)]
Official warnings
PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration)
This is not an official forecast or warning. Seasonal outlooks give odds, not certainties. For warnings and decisions about safety, follow your national weather service.
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Get a free alert when this changes
Country alerts start in December 2026. Check back here, or see the status page for the next official update dates.
Nearby countries
Brunei Darussalam · Cambodia · Indonesia · Lao PDR · Malaysia · Myanmar · Singapore · Thailand · Timor-Leste · Vietnam
Sources and dates
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite this page: “El Niño 2026–27 in Philippines”, El Niño Atlas, https://elninoatlas.pages.dev/country/philippines/, updated 15 November 2026.
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