El Niño 2026–27 in South Africa
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in South Africa (71% chance). That matches the past: 11 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were drier than usual here.
Temperatures: likely warmer than the 1993–2016 average (100% chance).
El Niño status: El Niño Advisory (NOAA, 12 November 2026). Outlook: Copernicus, issued November 2026.
Outlook for the next six months
December–February
Rainfall: likely drier
Temperature: likely warmer
February–April
Rainfall: likely drier
Temperature: likely warmer
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” means the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range; because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecast (Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51), country average. How this is calculated.
Air quality, next 4 days
Worst forecast day: Johannesburg, 17 November 2026: Moderate (PM2.5 23.5 µg/m³, AQI 78).
| City | 11/15 | 11/16 | 11/17 | 11/18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannesburg (capital) | 55Moderate | 71Moderate | 78Moderate | 63Moderate |
| Cape Town (capital) | 55Moderate | 56Moderate | 54Moderate | 68Moderate |
| Pretoria (capital) | 40Good | 64Moderate | 62Moderate | 52Moderate |
| Bloemfontein (capital) | 32Good | 24Good | 28Good | 42Good |
| Benoni | 53Moderate | 70Moderate | 68Moderate | 61Moderate |
AQI = US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days.
Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service global forecast, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What happened in past El Niños
Each row compares El Niño seasons with all other years in 1979-2025, after removing the long-term trend.
| Season | Rainfall | Temperature |
|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 25% less rain on average) | Warmer in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (+0.7 °C on average) |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 23% less rain on average) | Warmer in 13 of 13 El Niño seasons (+0.7 °C on average) |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 7 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | Warmer in 10 of 10 El Niño seasons (+0.8 °C on average) |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 20% less rain on average) | Warmer in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (+1.0 °C on average) |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 4% more rain on average) | Warmer in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (+0.3 °C on average) |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 22% more rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.3 °C on average) |
| Jun–Aug | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 31% more rain on average) | No consistent pattern (−0.1 °C on average) |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 34% more rain on average) | No consistent pattern (−0.0 °C on average) |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 21% more rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.2 °C on average) |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 12% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.3 °C on average) |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 20% less rain on average) | No consistent pattern (+0.4 °C on average) |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 25% less rain on average) | Warmer in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (+0.5 °C on average) |
Source: ERA5 monthly reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method.
Known El Niño impacts in South Africa
Past events
- El Niño does not always mean drought: in 1997–98 a drier-than-normal summer was expected in South Africa but did not happen. [Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)]
Official warnings
South African Weather Service (SAWS)
This is not an official forecast or warning. Seasonal outlooks give odds, not certainties. For warnings and decisions about safety, follow your national weather service.
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Get a free alert when this changes
Country alerts start in December 2026. Check back here, or see the status page for the next official update dates.
Nearby countries
Sources and dates
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite this page: “El Niño 2026–27 in South Africa”, El Niño Atlas, https://elninoatlas.pages.dev/country/south-africa/, updated 15 November 2026.
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