El Niño 2026–27 in Southern Africa
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana | likely drier (75/11/14%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Kingdom of eSwatini | leaning drier (45/35/20%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Lesotho | likely drier (67/17/16%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Namibia | likely drier (75/13/12%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| South Africa | likely drier (71/25/4%) | usually drier (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).