El Niño 2026–27 in Southern Asia
Rainfall and temperature outlook for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season. Outlook issued November 2026.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Past El Niños, same season | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | likely wetter (10/27/63%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Bangladesh | no clear signal (35/38/27%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Bhutan | likely drier (51/25/24%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| India | no clear signal (25/44/31%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Iran | likely wetter (6/29/65%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Maldives | likely wetter (0/10/90%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Nepal | no clear signal (33/40/27%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Pakistan | leaning wetter (14/37/49%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
| Sri Lanka | no clear signal (22/56/22%) | mixed (15 seasons) | likely warmer |
Rainfall odds shown as drier / normal / wetter. Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (outlook, ERA5); NOAA (El Niño seasons).